Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,325$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(703 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,396.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,396.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $114$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(31.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(107.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $934$ on 2020-07-08

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,498$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,816.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,816.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,966$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(640 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,927.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,927.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,132$ on 2020-07-08

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $242,149$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,823.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,823.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,914$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,958.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(33,958.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,595$ on 2020-07-08

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,054,699$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,017,849.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,017,849.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $132,300$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,664.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.4)}}\) (asimptote \(124,664.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,968,937$ on 2020-07-08

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $288,511$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279,400.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(279,400.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,602$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,410.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(42,410.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $242,531$ on 2020-07-08

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,858$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,424.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 105.2)}}\) (asimptote \(102,424.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,482$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(984 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,289.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,289.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,376$ on 2020-07-08

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $198,699$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,152.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(185,152.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,046$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,752.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,752.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,500$ on 2020-07-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Malaysia recovered 97%
Estonia recovered 96%
Denmark recovered 92%
Germany recovered 91%
Sri Lanka recovered 88%
Italy recovered 87%
Qatar recovered 85%
Singapore recovered 81%
Turkey recovered 80%
Hungary recovered 64%
Chile recovered 58%
Belarus recovered 57%
Afghanistan recovered 41%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 30%
Poland recovered 29%
Canada recovered 23%
Haiti recovered 18%
Bahrain recovered 17%
Pakistan recovered 17%
Nepal recovered 16%
Peru recovered 11%
Somalia recovered 8%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,950$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.001t}\) (doubling rate \(229.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,302.4}{1 + 10^{-0.089 (t - 15.1)}}\) (asimptote \(83,302.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,641$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,678.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,678.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $507$ on 2020-07-08

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,677$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,395.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,395.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(61.9 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 18.1)}}\) (asimptote \(117.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70$ on 2020-07-08

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,003$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(699 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,899.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,899.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(29.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 24.3)}}\) (asimptote \(68.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-07-08

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,101$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,520.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,520.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $609$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{591.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(591.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $290$ on 2020-07-08